War with China: Can a 21st Century Cold War Turn Hot?
Published October 9, 2007
By Max C. Bookman
This decade may only be the prologue to a dark chapter in our history.
The stage is set for a new Cold War between the United States and China. As the events of this century unfold, we can be sure that the People’s Republic’s continued expansion of its political and economic power will eventually conflict with the interests of our nation. The question is not if, but when.
Americans are fascinated by China’s potential. A communist nation of over a billion, China has seen remarkable growth in the past years. While this expansion has yet to butt heads with American interests, the future may see that change.
The same two main concerns from the 20th century could lead to a new Cold War - ideological incompatibility and temporal friction. But this time, the terms will be completely different. The Cold War of the 20th century was not as much a battle between the United States and the Soviet Union, but a struggle for the future structure of the world- capitalism or communism.
But a new cold war would not carry on that same struggle. China peddles a modern, softer, version of communism than what the Soviet Union boasted. The new Cold War will be less on those grounds and more on the very realistic terms of who will control what - US versus China.
This could get personal.
The national character of the two nations is the first cause for concern. Americans today carry on the spirit of Manifest Destiny, the sentiment that America has been driven by a higher power to spread the light of republicanism over all North America and then the world. Liberals and conservatives can agree that there is an inherent good in America, and that good is worth preserving. Maintaining our current position as superpower is simply a fulfillment of that Destiny.
China’s national character is embodied by a spirit of everlasting time. The Chinese are proud of their ancient and enduring civilization and are viciously disdainful of the Western exploitation of past centuries. The Chinese people do not see their growth as a new intrusion on the current system but as a restoration of their historic glory. Any American attempt to bar that expansion would be seen as a hostile attempt to return China to those imperial shackles.
These two ideologies are bound to clash.
But beyond ideology, is the physical world big enough for the both of us? As the world’s only superpower, America has been able to provide a high standard of living for all its citizens compared to that of many other nations. But in order to support this standard of living that we have all become accustomed to, the United States depends on the continued cooperation of nations from far beyond our borders.
A growing China is also interested in improving the standard of living for its largely impoverished masses. The friction lies in the distribution of resources. The planet simply cannot support the American standard of living plus a China intent on providing the same. Oil from the Middle East, military bases in South America, commercial deals in the Pacific- they could all be put in jeopardy by competition from a new superpower. In essence, there will be a point when China could expand its interests no further unless the United States concedes some of the benefits of being the world’s only superpower, which we currently enjoy. And of course, the American leadership is not interested in giving up anything we already lay claim to.
Take for example control of the Pacific. The United States currently enjoys a considerable deal of influence in China’s neighborhood. America has strong economic ties with Japan, military ties with South Korea, and diplomatic influence with Australia. In a new Cold War, China will no doubt compete with America for the good favor of these nations. Tensions could mount. As China expands the size and scope of its navy, American ships will have to share an ocean that we have had a firm grip upon since the second World War. Confrontation would be inevitable.
Things could get worse if China visibly asserts itself in America’s neighborhood. The Panama Canal, built by the United States in the 20th century, is now operated by a Chinese firm with ties to the Chinese government and its armed forces, the People’s Liberation Army. The firm has the authority to deny access to specific ships entering the Canal if its business needs see fit. That could have catastrophic consequences if US-Chinese relations go south.
The Iraqi government has just sought large quantities of AK-47s from the Chinese government instead of turning to the United States. This sets a precedent that Iraq’s future does not have to rest squarely in the hands of America. In the future, extremists in the Iraqi parliament could find China, who is alarmingly tolerable of non-democratic regimes, to be a willing ally in changing Iraq’s constitutional framework to allow a non-secular government. America’s reaction would frame the volatility of such a situation.
China is laying the groundwork for an ambitious space program. While mission dates are still decades into the future, they have a very real goal of sending a man to the moon. What better catalyst to a cold war than a live broadcast of a Chinese spacewalker rolling up to the Apollo 11 flag and replacing it with the red banner of the People’s Republic? A new cold war would undoubtedly include a new space race. China may have already set it off, announcing this year a missile that successfully destroys orbiting satellites. The United States does not have such a weapon.
Experts agree that the world’s supply of petroleum could begin to show signs of depletion at any time. If that begins to happen before a viable alternative source of energy is discovered, there could be a mad dash for the remaining supplies. While international law prohibits any nation from establishing sovereign claims over Antarctica, what if China, who would be more immediately pressed than America to provide energy for its behemoth population, decided to violate the treaty and drill there? Would America stand in the way?
If things get tense enough, any spark could ignite a war. China has a robust military structure, and with 2.25 million in active service, it currently boasts the world’s largest standing army. With that said, China has not fought a war since World War II, when they were successfully invaded by the Japanese. The People’s Liberation Army has never seen action in any large-scale engagement in its 50 year history. The country’s army is mainly conventional, and while they do have a sheer size advantage, such numbers would be negligible against the technologically advanced armed forces of the United States.
However, the situation in 2007 could be very different in 2057. The viability of America’s armed forces must be seriously questioned in light of its performance in Iraq. If the military force of the United States needs the assistance of private mercenaries like Blackwater to poorly manage an insurgency, prospects look shaky in fighting a full scale war with the People’s Republic.
Of course, it is impossible to predict the future. But as America continues to hold on to its position as global hegemon, the China question will have to be addressed in the upcoming century. And in an age where our international position has been tarnished by Bush and Iraq, it is ever more imperative that we make new friends and strengthen our relationships with the ones we have left.
The moral question, which may never be addressed, is the right to hegemony. America was not elected world superpower, we acquired the position through military and diplomatic force. However, the position of hegemony has become embedded in the national character of America to the point where many Americans view our position as the only superpower as a right. Will Americans be united in defending our way of life from Chinese encroachment? Can America re-learn to share the world with another superpower? Time will tell.
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