The Fate of Cuba in the Absence of Fidel

Published February 26, 2008

By Peter Salerno

Over the past fifty years saying the word Cuba has meant Fidel Castro, and it’s an eerie feeling now that it doesn’t. His reign came to an end rather quietly as the alive but ailing Castro drafted a letter of resignation to be printed in the state sponsored paper.

He appointed his brother Raul Castro to take over running Cuba for him. Raul is also a revolutionary hero in Cuba and being only eight years younger than his brother, has been a figurehead of Cuba’s domestic and international political scene for just as long.
The question that needs answering now is, where does a non-Fidel Cuba go from here? Will it continue its isolation from America by dealing with its adversaries (once the Soviet Union, and now Venezuela)? Will Raul change the workings of the Cuban government to help realize the promises made by his older brother so many years ago? Or will he simply follow the status quo, digging Cuba further into economic debt and third world classification?

The answers to all these questions are purely speculative, but one has to wonder if Raul even has a choice. It seems that there isn’t any gray area where he could follow his brother’s lead and still reform to help the people. These seem to be contradictory paths of policy in Cuba.

Fidel swore that “imperialism would never vanquish Cuba,” yet how will his brother pass off opening up trade with superpowers like the U.S. or China as anything but imperialism? Is it possible for Raul to reconcile the large gap that has formed between intellectuals shouting for more civil freedom and the system put in place by Fidel that puts dissidents in prison for whispering a complaint?

Quite frankly, Raul can’t choose both. He is confined to either continuing his brother Fidel’s policies or reforming and modernizing the Cuban system of governing. There are little tastes of a free market economy in Cuba and these smalltime businessmen are going to want more leeway now that Fidel is out of power. How will Raul go about granting more laissez faire policies in the economic sphere of Cuba without completely undermining his brother Fidel’s legacy? His only choice is to work slowly, so slowly that people still revere Fidel’s legacy yet gradually notice a change under the guise of ‘Fidel’s initial plans.’

Fidel never got to see those plans he shouted in 1958 realized because of the divisive nature of communism in the Western Hemisphere throughout his regime. He had to play ball with the Soviets, which afforded him nowhere near the economic stability an ally in the US would have. All the other nations of the Western Hemisphere continued their trade with Fidel, opting for engagement over isolation in dealing with the dictator.

He has built up almost insurmountable debt with all of those nations because of the lack of America’s role in its economy. Since Cuba is closest to the United States, shipping costs from the island nation to the US would be minimal and this relationship would open up Cuba’s largest market for exporting goods.

Still, it is hard to imagine any leader in the near future opening Cuba’s doors to America. Cuba has had disdain for American imperial power long before Fidel, and Fidel’s constant snuffing of the US government has portrayed him as an admirable figure throughout Latin America. Fidel’s behavior in dealing with US presidents has led to leaders such as Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Evo Morales of
Bolivia gaining noticeable popularity in their respective nations for their own disdain of US leaders. It was easy for Fidel to stick his nose up at American ideals such as free market and open trade when they were not working to bring any prosperity to Cuban people.

Although the chief reason for Cuba’s economic failure was the lack of the US as a viable or even remotely available trade partner.

Cuba has a rocky road ahead of it, and sadly the nation is still looking for crutches to lean on. First there was Raul’s visit to China in
admiration of that nation’s ability to successfully open its market and maintain communist power at the same time. Traditionalists in Cuba would never stand for an alliance with China because of the ideological differences they have in the way communism ought to work.

Then there is Cuba’s reliance on cheap oil from Hugo Chavez as an alternative to opening the door with the US. This is contingent upon Chavez’s giving a damn about Cuba now that Fidel is no longer in power, and how long Chavez himself remains in power. Although help from China and Chavez would grant Cuba more time to stay afloat without the US, neither would help the nation thrive like their people have yearned to for over the past fifty years.

There is only one option that can deliver lasting relief to the Cuban people’s desire to prosper. That is free and open trade with their closest neighbor, the US. This doesn’t seem like an impossible idea because of the standpoint the US has taken on trade with communist China. The only obstacle is that the US needs China, but doesn’t need Cuba.

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